I have owned a series 2 Tivo, and it was amazing. Incredibly user friendly, best consumer electronics remote control, great experience overall. We stopped our Tivo service when we cut our cable and went over the air with an Home Theater PC (HTPC). Our biggest problem with it was we were paying for cable, then payed again for what was essentially a really great guide.

That, I believe, is why Tivo may be doomed if they don’t find some way to find more subscribers willing to pay the monthly fee. At the moment, the price per month of service is $12.95. There are ways of making it cheaper by paying for a year or two in advance, but $12.95 a month is what most folks will pay.

I see a few things Tivo has working against them:

• The economy
• Cable/Satellite boxes are good enough
• Additional cost of service
• It is either too premium, or not premium enough of a product.

The economy might be the biggest factor. People who have a tv service (be it cable or satellite) and have a Tivo are losing their jobs, having their pay cut, finding services cost more, or are preparing for all of the above. Most of react by cutting non-essential services. I think Tivo may be screwed here, as there is nothing you can do when the customers who have already picked you stop having excess money.

The cable/satellite box is one that is difficult to overcome. While the user experience is not great, you can find your shows on the guide, record them, get some on-demand stuff, and generally do just enough to justify the cost of service. Getting customers to part with $250 to $500 and have a monthly or yearly subscription is asking too much. I am sure they are trying, but they need an Apple/AT&T type deal where the hardware gets subsidized and sold for next to nothing, and the subscription gets included in the cable price, split between provider/Tivo. AT&T may be a great place to go for something like this.

Tivo is definitely a premium product, as it takes what your cable box does, and does it better. I have no experience with the HD Tivo, but the Series 2 was quick, my wife and family were able to use it without tech support being needed, and once again, I have never had a remote as good as the Tivo. My Harmony comes close, but it is not the perfect extension of dedicated hardware that the Tivo remote was.

Somehow it is not a premium enough product to get people to want a better television experience. I think I would be their target market: gadget nerd who loves things that do what they do well. I should be lusting after one of the HD Tivo boxes, trying to find every dime I can scrounge like I did for my iPhone. Somehow the Tivo magic is gone, and all they can do now is an advertising deal with Google. A pioneering icon like Tivo deserves better than having it’s great idea cannibalized by everybody from Comcast to Microsoft.